Global Europe Brief: What to expect in 2022

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Welcome to the first Global Europe newsletter of 2022. As we move into a new year, we would like to thank you for joining us every week for a dive into what’s moving EU foreign policy.

In our first edition this year, we give you a glimpse of what will drive discussions this year.

EU IN THE WORLD

‘RING OF FIRE’ | The flare-up of tensions between Russia and the West over its military build-up around Ukraine will likely become a litmus test for EU foreign policy in early 2022, and geopolitics is likely to loom large over France’s six-month-long EU presidency

EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell vowed the bloc’s full support for Ukraine as he visited the country’s war-torn east just ahead of a flurry of talks between Western and Russian officials on the crisis, in which the EU had been largely left out.

Brussels looks towards some fire fighting to salvage what is left of the once-dominant dream of building a ‘ring of friends’ from the Caucasus to the Sahara:

2022: Europe's 'ring of fire' keeps smouldering

In 2022, EU foreign policy looks towards some fire fighting to salvage what is left of the once-dominant dream of building a ‘ring of friends’ from the Caucasus to the Sahara.
Over the past year, Europe has woken up to the …

CHINA QUESTIONS | With less than a month to go until the Beijing Olympics, most EU leaders and their ministers have not made up their minds yet whether they will participate or boycott the Games. 

France said it will try to reach a common EU position concerning the participation of politicians at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics on 4 February, but such an outcome seems unlikely.

A French official also said that the correct way for the EU to talk to China was the 27+1 format.

And then we have the China-Lithuania spat. The EU said it may take the trade row between Beijing and Vilnius to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) if it finds evidence that Beijing is violating international trade rules, but the process at the WTO might take too long to make a difference for Lithuania.

Some EU diplomats have raised the question: What if the EU cannot address China’s coercive trade tactics against Lithuania, how is it to trust to act decisively on Russia?

GULF STRATEGY | The European Commission is due to present its communication on a partnership with the Gulf in the second quarter of 2022. But its presence in the region got off to a bad start: The EU’s permanent physical presence at the quinquennial beauty contest of nations and world powers was limited to an office tucked away from the public at the end of a hidden hallway, EURACTIV discovered while visiting the Dubai Expo in the United Arab Emirates.

EU-AFRICA | Nearly two years after the European Commission set out plans for a ‘strategic partnership’ with Africa, and repeated delays, the long-awaited EU–African Union summit is scheduled for February.

In the meantime, European Council President Charles Michel has taken on much of the diplomatic heavy lifting, crisscrossing Africa and inviting a group of African presidents for a summit pre-meeting last December.

With the pandemic and the green deal the dominant issues on the table for both sides, we can expect little movement on trade and migration.

2022: COVID and vaccine access cast a shadow over EU-Africa partnership plan

Nearly two years after the European Commission set out plans for a ‘strategic partnership’ with Africa, and repeated delays, the long-awaited EU–African Union summit is almost upon us.

Read also:

• Too many loopholes left in Belarus sanctions regime says Tsikhanouskaya
• Some EU delegations remain ‘passive’, development chief admits
• We don’t want to see any flashpoints in the Arctic, EU envoy says

DEFENCE CORNER

STRATEGIC COMPASS | The final version of the EU’s Strategic Compass, the closest the bloc can come to a military strategy, is set to be approved in March, during France’s EU Council presidency, with the first-ever European Defence Summit to follow.

An updated version of the blueprint will be presented to EU foreign and defence ministers informally meeting in France in January. But with French President Emmanuel Macron focused on his reelection campaign, some in Brussels fear the process could become trapped in a push for more French security objectives.

The proposals for more EU defence have drawn criticism, especially from Eastern European and more NATO-reliant EU member states, for duplicating manpower and money to the military alliance. A joint EU-NATO communication, which was due at the end of 2021, has been pushed into this year.

MILITARY MISSIONS | The EU said it would conduct strategic reviews in early 2022 into its military and civilian missions in Africa, following reports that EU instructors might have provided training to local forces in the Central African Republic controlled by the Russian mercenary group, Wagner.

It is also likely to move forward – though there is no concrete timeline yet – on a training mission for Ukrainian officers due to Russia’s “ongoing military activities”.

Strategic communication on EU missions is also among the top priorities of the Czech defence ministry. The country wants to push this agenda as it takes over the rotating six-month EU Council presidency in the second half of 2022.

NATO’s NEW DOCTRINE | The military alliance is looking to update its Strategic Concept for the first time in a decade, with a likely update on Russia, reintroducing China (it has not been mentioned once in the previous document), ideas on how to deal with hybrid threats and crisis management missions in the aftermath of Afghanistan.

… AND LEADERSHIP | With less than six months to go until a crucial NATO summit in Madrid in June, the alliance’s leadership question has also barely been addressed so far. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s term ends later this autumn.

SPACE AMBITIONS | The creation of a new branch in the European Commission – DG Defence Industry and Space (DEFIS), long resisted by Britain – has been a step forward in putting a European stamp on the emerging domain.

One initiative jointly proposed by DEFIS and the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS) this year will be to develop an EU strategy for Space Traffic Management (STM). Its’ objective will be to prepare European industry in establishing rules on space traffic at the international level and protect the efficiency of the EU’s flagship programmes  (Galileo, Copernicus).

In addition, as part of the open strategic autonomy push, the Commission plans to build an EU space-based global secure communications system, which would provide connectivity services and high-speed broadband to EU member states and European regions and territories.

Also, Arianespace is pressing ahead with plans for the first flight of the Ariane 6 in potentially the second half of 2022.

ARMS CONTROL | Although the Biden’s administration’s decision in 2021 to extend the New START has, for the next five years, put a hold on a dangerous nuclear arms race between Moscow and Washington, the issue has come back with a vengeance in Russia’s recent European security proposals. Bilateral talks on the mounting tensions over Ukraine nuclear arms control are scheduled for 10 January.

But one almost certain setback for nuclear arms control already happened before the new year even started – the UN’s review conference on the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT), which was supposed to begin early this year, has been postponed until further notice. A tentative hold is expected to be placed on 1-26 August but requires formal confirmation by attending parties.

Held every five years, the now twice-postponed conference was meant to discuss non-proliferation – though most likely without any commitment to tangible action to reduce nuclear weapons or to disarm.

Read also:

• Europe has to become a security provider, says EU’s Borrell
• LEAK: What the EU’s future military strategy could look like
• NATO chief: There will be consequences if Russia attacks Ukraine again
• Post-Afghanistan, EU defence moves closer towards military coalitions

TRANSATLANTIC LINK

SECURITY DIALOGUE | A previously touted US-EU dialogue on security and defence will be launched in early 2022, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell announced.

First announced in their joint EU-US June summit, the first meeting will be held in early 2022, with the participation of the US Departments of State and Defense, the European External Action Service (EEAS), the European Commission and the European Defence Agency (EDA).

Read also:

• EU-US relations: In search of common ground?

ENLARGEMENT LATEST

ON LIFE SUPPORT | Enlargement is stalled, and EU governments can barely agree on a common strategy to bring in the six membership hopefuls — Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia.

EU leaders failed to make any further tangible commitments in October and much depends on a resolution of the Skopje-Sofia standoff:

2022: Enlargement on life support

Enlargement is stalled, and EU governments can barely agree on a common strategy to bring in the six membership hopefuls — Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia.

Read also:

• Radev: North Macedonia must change its constitution
• In Bosnia, the migration crisis is far from over
• Slovenian FM: EU inaction in Western Balkans ‘strategically dangerous’
• Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine formalise their higher EU ambition
• Georgia wants ‘new elements’ in Eastern Partnership, its ambassador says
• Lithuania: EU should step up security role in its East

EURASIA DIGEST

CIVIL UNREST | The bloody protests in Kazakhstan have drawn the attention of regional powers Russia and China, as well as Western capitals. Developments suggest the political crisis in the Central Asian nation, which began  with protests against rising fuel prices, could escalate further.

Russia has sent troops to its ally as part of ‘peacekeeping’ forces deployed by the Moscow-headed Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) at the request of Kazakh leader Tokayev, who has accused foreign-trained “terrorist gangs” of driving the unrest.

The first-ever use of the CSTO’s collective security provision and Russia’s military intervention brought back “memories of situations to be avoided”, EU’s chief diplomat Borrell said. EU diplomats, especially those stationed in the region, have expressed concern whether the events in Kazakhstan could spill-over and destabilise it.

FOCUS ON WATER | Most of Central Asia has been experiencing an extreme drought last year, with record high temperatures impacting the region’s agricultural sector and price of basic food items, a trend likely to continue in the next years. A major water conference in the region, planned for June, is expected to give a drive to water diplomacy.

Read also:

• Central Asia in EU’s spotlight as region faces stability question over Afghanistan
• Afghanistan looms large at EU-Central Asia talks in Dushanbe

Read more with Euractiv

Geopolitics looms large at French presidency launch

The unrest in Kazakhstan, the tensions around Ukraine and the need to have a credible European policy vis-à-vis Russia dominated the high point of the inauguration of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU.